Ah, the first 'real' kiss. It's the first intimate thing we do with one another. It's the first move in the proverbial game of love. This is something that I always pondered, dreaded, and fretted about when I dated. It gives my heart the flutters, in a good way.
If I liked a woman, conversation was flowing, and the energy was good on the date, I would think about the good night kiss. That was the way I would gauge her reciprocal interest in me.
The hard part, as you write, is the level of a reciprocal kiss. Tongue or no tongue, quick peck on the lips or lingering? So much tacit information is passed between the lips at that moment. I remember kissing a date and thinking, "whoa, did I just kiss my sister?" To, "holy Jesus fuck! I just came alive."
It's super tough and I get where you're at.
If I may share a bit of my life experience with you, my most passionate and fiery relationships always started out passionately.You can't go wrong with expressing your feelings, even if it's a bit of tongue on the first date. If he gets all weirded out by that then just move on. Good luck!